It's possible to trade profitably on the Forex, the nearly $2 trillion worldwide currency exchange market. But the odds are against you, even more so if you don't prepare and plan your trades. According to a 2014 Bloomberg report, several analyses of retail Forex trading, including one by the National Futures Association (NFA), the industry's regulatory body, concluded that more than two out of three Forex traders lose money.
This suggests that self-education and caution are recommended. Here are some approaches that may improve your odds of taking a profit.
Prepare Before You Begin Trading
Because the Forex market is highly leveraged -- as much as 50 to 1 -- it can have the same appeal as buying a lottery ticket: some small chance of making a killing. This, however, isn't trading; it's gambling, with the odds long against you.
A better way of entering the Forex market is to carefully prepare. Beginning with a practice account is helpful and risk-free. While you're trading in your practice account, read the most frequently recommended Forex trading books, among them
Currency Forecasting: A Guide to Fundamental and Technical Models of Exchange Rate Determination, by Michael R. Rosenberg is short, not too sweet and highly admired introduction to the Forex market.
Forex Strategies: Best Forex Strategies for High Profits and Reduced Risk, by Matthew Maybury is an excellent introduction to Forex trading.
The Little Book of Currency Trading: How to Make Big Profits in the World of Forex, by Kathy Lien is another concise introduction that has stood the test of time.
All three are available on Amazon. Rosenberg's book, unfortunately, is pricey, but it's widely available in public libraries. "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude," by Mark Douglas is another good book that's available on Amazon, and, again, somewhat pricey, although the Kindle edition is not.
Use the information gained from your reading to plan your trades before plunging in. The more you change your plan, the more you end up in trouble and the less likely that elusive forex profit will end up in your pocket.
Diversify and Limit Your Risks
Two strategies that belong in every trader's arsenal are:
Diversification: Traders who execute many small traders, particularly in different markets where the correlation between markets is low, have a better chance of making a profit. Putting all your money in one big trade is always a bad idea.
Familiarize yourself with ways guaranteeing a profit on an already profitable order, such as a trailing stop, and of limiting losses using stop and limit orders. These strategies and more are covered in the recommended books. Novice traders often make the mistake of concentrating on how to win; it's even more important to understand how to limit your losses.
Be Patient
Forex traders, particularly beginners, are prone to getting nervous if a trade does not go their way immediately, or if the trade goes into a little profit they get itchy to pull the plug and walk away with a small profit that could have been a significant profit with little downside risk using appropriate risk reduction strategies.
In "On Any Given Sunday," Al Pacino reminds us that "football is a game of inches." That's a winning attitude in the Forex market as well. Remember that you are going to win some trades and lose others. Take satisfaction in the accumulation of a few more wins than losses. Over time, that could make you rich!
Boulevardier
According to my calendar, on December 19th I ostensibly signed special ordered books at The Strand and then took my two year-old to a holiday party, but I know the truth, which is that I was actually reading this hilarious piece on Bon Appetit from Alex Delany in which he complains that winter cocktails are usually too unsubtly wintery, that he doesn’t need “seven sticks of cinnamon, half a holly tree or a metric ton of cloves, mulling spices or liquor that tastes like cookies” to entice him to drink booze in the winter, and texting my husband that we should make boulevardiers that night after the kids went to sleep.
Boulevardier, according to Google, means “a wealthy, fashionable socialite,” (aka “what is the opposite of Deb?”) but from that day on, it will be forever be the official drink of the winter of 2017-2018 (this is the official cookie, by the way) because we’ve found it downright habit-forming.
A distant cousin of the Negroni, both contain sweet (red) vermouth and Campari but the Boulevardier swaps the usual gin for bourbon, traditionally, or rye, what I often use, and the effect is mellowing, and less intimidatingly bitter, than a Negroni. It needs exactly nothing else to be a finished drink. Sure, it’s nice with a twist of orange or lemon, and I’ve also enjoyed it with a cocktail cherry, especially when someone else was making it, but most of the times it’s simply been on ice and I shamelessly love that I don’t even have to fish a piece of fruit of the fridge to make it happen. I realize that announcing that sometimes one wants a cocktail but is too lazy to make a real effort about it is not exactly the most flattering light in which to paint oneself, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing to make if it means more of us will read this and know it’s exactly the right cozy thing for right now.
Traditionally, the Boulevardier is 1 ounce (1 part) each Campari, sweet red vermouth, and rye whiskey or bourbon, but many versions use 1.25 to 1.5 ounces (1.25 to 1.5 parts) of the latter, and I go even further to 2. (Bourbon is generally more mellow and sweet; rye, slightly more spicy and dry.) It is not a subtle drink. It should definitely be sipped quite slowly. We make it on the rocks, but you can also shake it with ice, strain it, and serve it up. I show it here with an orange peel we like very much (a cherry, and yes, the Luxardo ones are absolutely worth it, is also good) but it’s also good with no garnishes whatsoever.
- 2 ounces bourbon or rye whiskey
- 1 ounce red vermouth
- 1 ounce Campari
- Ice
In an old-fashioned glass, mix everything and add ice to taste.
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